A combination of rising global interest rates and ongoing trade protectionism will continue to create unexpected turbulence for logistics managers over the course of 2019, say analysts. Meanwhile emerging markets will provide opportunities for faster growth-yet each faces its own set of operational challenges.
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President Trump is exposing China’s economic vulnerability, showing that the communist nation cannot maintain its rapid growth without it patently unfair mercantilist trade policies. The Chinese government recently announced that its GDP growth for 2018 of only 6.6 percent – the country’s slowest rate of economic development since 1990. Growth in the fourth quarter declined to 6.4 percent. For the second half of 2018, Chinese investment, consumer spending, manufacturing and exports all slowed markedly with the current trade war with the U.S. hurting China more than anticipated.
After months of painstaking bargaining by President Trump’s negotiating team, the renegotiated North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), now rebranded as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), looks to set a template for modern American
trade agreements in the 21st century. By all initial measures the USMCA lives up to frequently promised, but seldom delivered, concepts of free, fair and reciprocal trade.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts the global airline industry net profit to be $35.5 billion in 2019, slightly ahead of the $32.3 billion expected net profit in 2018 (revised down from $33.8 billion forecast in June).
Asian Pacific airlines recorded an “encouraging” increase in air cargo volumes in 2018, despite a slowdown towards the end of the year. The latest figures from the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) show that air cargo volumes increased by 3.9% year on year in 2018. However, growth continued to slow as the year progressed, in December, for example, the member airlines registered a 0.7% decrease compared with a year earlier.
Canada’s economy may soon endure something it hasn’t faced in 68 years: A recession without the U.S. in the same boat. That’s the view of Jim Mylonas, global macro strategist at BCA Research Inc. in Montreal, a firm that’s been making calls on markets and economies since 1949. Mylonas says the surge in household debt combined with rising interest rates will push the Canadian economy into recession, even while the U.S. economy continues to grow.
China on Monday announced that its official economic growth came in at 6.6 percent in 2018 – the slowest pace since 1990. That announcement was highly anticipated by many around the world amid Beijing’s ongoing trade dispute with the U.S., its largest trading partner.
United States-bound waterborne shipments in December capped a record-breaking year for global trade, according to data issued this week by global trade intelligence firm Panjiva.
The current United States federal government shutdown is already the longest in history with no clear end in sight, and industry associations and participants are concerned that aviation and airfreight will suffer in the short- and long-term if it is not resolved soon.
America’s days as the world’s most powerful economy are numbered, and when that torch is finally passed, it’ll be tough to get back, according to a recent report. In our call of the day, Standard Chartered predicts that China’s GDP will overtake the U.S. next year. What’s more, within another decade, India is pegged to push the U.S. even further down the list.